Forum:2016 Pacific hurricane season/October
October 98E.INVEST AOI: SSW of Baja At 20/70 right now, and is likely to become Seymour. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:40, October 8, 2016 (UTC) As if we need to see any more. ^-^ This E. Pac Season has been spectacular. elawson7 23:12, October 8, 2016 (UTC) 30/70. Should be invested soon. Eric 02:40, October 9, 2016 (UTC) Whether this will be Seymour or Tina, this (and the other invest) are forecast to move westward. I think we'll see two fishspinners from these two AOIs. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 05:31, October 9, 2016 (UTC) Probably. Chances have been revised to 20/70. Eric 11:26, October 9, 2016 (UTC) :10/70. This may take its time, making it more likely to become Tina. Eric 21:13, October 9, 2016 (UTC) :Back to 20/70. The race for the name Seymour is on. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:24, October 10, 2016 (UTC) ::30/70. This race should be fun. Eric 12:58, October 10, 2016 (UTC) 98E.INVEST Invested. Eric 13:11, October 10, 2016 (UTC) Down to 30/50. Eric 00:29, October 11, 2016 (UTC) 30/30. This is going to have to do something fast if it even wants a chance to become a TD. Cooler waters lie ahead. Eric 20:53, October 11, 2016 (UTC) 10/10. Development is no longer expected. Eric 23:42, October 12, 2016 (UTC) Vanished. Oh well. Eric 17:52, October 13, 2016 (UTC) 99E.INVEST AOI: W of Costa Rica 10/70. Here comes Tina. After a brief pause, it appears that the E. Pac is back into action. elawson7 23:57, October 8, 2016 (UTC) :20/70. Looks like this AOI and the one above will compete for the name Seymour. The loser takes the name Tina. Eric 11:28, October 9, 2016 (UTC) ::20/80...Eric 12:59, October 10, 2016 (UTC) 99E.INVEST Also invested. But now down to 10/60. Eric 00:26, October 11, 2016 (UTC) 20/60. Eric 20:51, October 11, 2016 (UTC) 20/40... :/ Eric 23:41, October 12, 2016 (UTC) : Haven't paid much attention here lately since the Atlantic has been stealing all the notable storms lately, but if this becomes Seymour, it probably won't do much other than kick up some waves near Mexico. Ryan1000 00:06, October 13, 2016 (UTC) :: I was expecting Seymour and Tina, but it looks like even Seymour is a long shot. Well, this Eastern Pacific season really has been incredible, and if it fails to produce another storm, I'll be okay with that. Eric 17:54, October 13, 2016 (UTC) ::: Haven't posted here in a while due to a couple obvious beasts that appeared in the Atlantic. But this invest is 20/60, and Seymour could pop up in the next several days or so. ~ Steve Chat :D 21:56, October 15, 2016 (UTC) ::::Ditto, I haven't posted on here in a while either. This has gone down to 30/30, and it might not develop. [[User:TornadoGenius|'T']][[User talk:TornadoGenius|'G']] 14:33, October 17, 2016 (UTC) :::::For the record, this invest has been off the TWO for I believe a hilariously long time, since no one cares to update this basin anymore. ~ Steve Chat :D 03:04, October 22, 2016 (UTC) 95C.INVEST AOI: S of Hawaii CPHC gives this a 20% chance, but it seems unlikely that Walaka will come from this. I do like that name, though. Eric 15:18, October 9, 2016 (UTC) :50%. May have Walaka after all. Eric 19:04, October 14, 2016 (UTC) :I only see a 10% chance from the CPHC. It doesn't say anything about this invest being that well-formed. [[User:TornadoGenius|'T']][[User talk:TornadoGenius|'G']] 21:13, October 15, 2016 (UTC) 95C.INVEST Invested. Eric 19:21, October 14, 2016 (UTC) : At 10% for 48 hours. Walaka will have to wait; it is just forecast to dissipate due to hostile environment. ~ Steve Chat :D 21:59, October 15, 2016 (UTC) AOI: SE of Hawaii CPHC gives this just a 10% chance. For now, it seems that this AOI and the one above may just produce some sporadic thunderstorm activity and then vanish out in a few days. Eric 00:34, October 11, 2016 (UTC) 90E.INVEST How has this basin not been updated AT ALL?! We have missed a couple AOIs (I'm assuming), and everyone must be way too focused on basins such as the Atlantic. I've also been caught up in the Atlantic lately, but I am really surprised that no one updated this basin. There are other basins too, you know. >:( This invest is 10/10 and will not develop since upper-level winds are here demolishing it. I would pay more attention to the below invest, which is likely to be Seymour. ~ Steve Chat :D 03:01, October 22, 2016 (UTC) : It has dissipated. ~ Steve Chat :D 17:54, October 22, 2016 (UTC) 20E.SEYMOUR 91E.INVEST This is likely to end up as our next named Eastern Pacific storm. Chances are 50/80, and I am hoping it is a hurricane. "S" storm coming already?! ~ Steve Chat :D 03:01, October 22, 2016 (UTC) : 70/80. Seymour is coming soon from 91E. I am guessing that this will be the final hurricane of the season, but we might go up to Tina or even Virgil before the end. ~ Steve Chat :D 17:53, October 22, 2016 (UTC) Tropical Depression Twenty-E Now a TD. Forecast to become a hurricane in the coming days. Here comes Seymour! Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:52, October 23, 2016 (UTC) :Wow, this formed faster than I thought it would. Yay for future Seymour! :D Eric 11:32, October 23, 2016 (UTC) :::It's currently expected to become a cat 1, though it could become stronger. And unlike Patricia of last year, this is heading out to sea, so Mexico is safe from this one, barring some surf on the southern coastline. Ryan1000 11:48, October 23, 2016 (UTC) ::: Tropical Storm Seymour 35 kt/1005 mbar. Eric 20:54, October 23, 2016 (UTC) :Already up to 55 kt/999 mbar. Eric 11:45, October 24, 2016 (UTC) Hurricane Seymour 65 kt/995 mbar. That was fast! Now forecast to reach major hurricane strength. Eric 14:35, October 24, 2016 (UTC) :Tiny Seymour is rapidly intensifying. 85 kt/984 mbar per 5pm EDT advisory. Eric 20:44, October 24, 2016 (UTC) :::Seymour might become a strong category 4 hurricane at the rate it's intensifying, this is impressive. But intensity forecasts have a long way to go before they'll be as accurate as track forecasts, especially for late-season EPac storms. Patricia significantly exceeded the NHC's expectations for her intensity at this time last year, and Seymour will this time around too. He may eventually recurve into Baja in the long run, but Seymour should weaken significantly before it hits there. Ryan1000 21:24, October 24, 2016 (UTC) Major Hurricane Seymour Seymour's rate of intensification has slowed since yesterday evening, but with the new advisory it's been upped to 100 kts/970 mbar. Glad to have a major to track in the EPAC for the first time since Madeline and Lester (pending post-analysis on Orlene). Go, Seymour, go! --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 09:00, October 25, 2016 (UTC) :Up to 110 kt/961 mbar. Well done, Seymour. Eric 14:46, October 25, 2016 (UTC) ::Category 4 now, 130 mph/954 mb. Never expected it to get THIS strong, like wtf?! I have to say this is f-ing epic. Well done, Seymour. :D ~ Steve Chat :D 01:25, October 26, 2016 (UTC) :::Um... pending official confirmation of this from the NHC in about 70-80 minutes or so, Seymour is now the strongest storm of the season. EP, 20, 2016102600, , BEST, 0, 159N, 1171W, 130, 943, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 10, 10, 15, 1012, 140, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, SEYMOUR, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 037, --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 01:35, October 26, 2016 (UTC) ::::O_O wut. Seymour may even reach C5 strength at this pace... ~ Steve Chat :D 02:07, October 26, 2016 (UTC) :::::::Looks like I was right in that Seymour could become a strong cat 4, he has now dethroned the tie between Blas and Lester as the strongest storm of the season. It's not far from cat 5 intensity, but as much as Seymour may become a 5, it also may stop and weaken from here on out. Since it's not affecting land, I'm hoping for the former. Ryan1000 04:21, October 26, 2016 (UTC) ::::::::I officially give up underestimating storms myself. I knew this thing would get strong from the very beginning. I literally just woke up, went to the NHC, thought I was gonna see a C3. But no, I saw winds of 150 miles per hour and a pressure of 943 millibars. This storm, man he is awesome. [[User:IbAHAn1829tree|''Sincerely,'' IbAHAn1829, and stay safe!]] \[[User talk:IbAHAn1829tree|(:-D)Chat]]/''Ta ta!'' 10:19, October 26, 2016 (UTC) Gotta give you credit Ryan, you nailed this one. Looks like 130/943 is gonna be Seymour's (operational) peak though, it's down to 125/945 per ATCF. I love how this storm bears one of the most innocent names I've ever seen assigned to a TC, and yet it went on to reach the WHEM equivalent of a super typhoon lol. Kind of like how names such as Bob, Dolly or Newton sound almost too polite for such a destructive force of nature. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 13:03, October 26, 2016 (UTC) : Dropped down to 125 mph/958 mbar as of the most recent advisory. I have to say, this was an incredible storm. Sadly it didn't strengthen past the peak of 150 mph (130 kts)/943 mbar. :( ~ Steve Chat :D 01:45, October 27, 2016 (UTC) Hurricane Seymour (2nd time) Down to category 1. Seymour is going down fast. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:11, October 27, 2016 (UTC) :As fast as it went up, it seems. But, becoming the strongest storm of the season was incredible. Good job, Seymour. Eric 15:21, October 27, 2016 (UTC) Tropical Storm Seymour (2nd time) Probably won't be here by the next advisory.--Isaac829 03:42, October 28, 2016 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Seymour Gone. The sheared convection of Seymour made it to southern California and northern Baja, though it didn't do any notable damage; if anything it brought some helpful rain to the region. Ryan1000 10:30, October 28, 2016 (UTC) :I hope Seymour and Nicole were the last E. Pacific & Atlantic storms this season, because they were both my favorites, and that would mean both seasons ended on an awesome note. Eric 14:29, October 28, 2016 (UTC)